Assume that the first self-
replicating system is able to reproduce at the same rate as bacteria. Further assume that
this system is a single RNA molecule. Can such a system evolve? We will consider a system
without natural selection first, and we will find that the odds for evolution when
the steps in molecular knowledge are large are more likely in systems without
natural selection.
This system certainly gets plenty of tries ~ 1030 per year. How
much information can it create given a billion years if each replication event counts as
one try? In one billion years, this self-replicator will accumulate approximately 1039
tries. Such a system has a 63% chance of generating 130 bits of molecular knowledge.
Figure 15.6 illustrates how self replication and the number of tries that it generates
help the scientist to climb a wall of knowledge. Perhaps more impressive, self-replicators
(like bacteria) can create 100 bits of knowledge in a single year! This looks encouraging
for evolution.
Figure 15.6: Self Replication Helps Increase the Number of Tries
The Trees Help, but . . .
Self replicators cannot accumulate ~1030 tries per year
unless they can replicate this many times per year. This replication will undoubtable
require an almost unlimited supply of adenine, cytosine, ribose, uracil, and thymine.
Given that these are so difficult to synthesis in the lab under plausible pre-biotic
conditions, in order for the self replicators to accumulate ~1030 tries per
year, they must be able to at least synthesize adenine and ATP. Thus, there is no clear
path for evolution.
Chapter 14 calculates the molecular knowledge of the
enzymes responsible for adenine synthesis and ATP at 15,364 bits in the soup and 2,771
bits with the genetic code. These enzymes are required by the self replicators to make
adenine so they can self-replicate. Nevertheless, assume (as all evolutionists have) that
perpetual motion machines are acceptable when they are needed to explain the origin of
life. With this assumption, the self replicators still get ~1030 tries per
year, and evolution still fails (see figure 15.7).
Figure 15.7 - Time Does Not Help When The Odds Are This Poor
Figure 15.7 - Time Does Not Help When The Odds Are This Poor This entire discussion boils
down to the chicken or the egg paradox which came first. Evolution needs large populations
that replicate quickly to create knowledge. But self-replicators cannot replicate quickly
unless they can synthesize adenine, ATP and host of other chemicals. This first step is so
large that even with the perpetual motion assumption evolution fails, and it only gets
worse from here.
The next page will show that natural selection is not a solution to
this problem. In fact, natural selection is just an aggravating factor.
Next: Natural Selection Limits the Number
of Tries
Previous: Number of Tries
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